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This U.S. Ally Could Buy Russia's Su-57 Stealth Fighter and S-500 Air Defense System Or, will Turkey stick with U.S. arms like the F-35?

土耳其这个美国盟友会购买俄罗斯的苏-57隐形战机和S-500防空系统,还是会坚持使用美国的武器,比如F-35?

Turkey’s plans to purchase the Russian S-400 missile system marked a major shift in Ankara’s defense orientation, eliciting a sharp response from Washington. Nonetheless, the S-400 deal barely scratches the surface of the blooming Turkey-Russia defense relationship and the threat that it poses to NATO’s military coherence.

土耳其购买俄罗斯S-400导弹系统的计划标志着安卡拉国防方向的重大转变,引起了华盛顿的强烈反应。尽管如此,S-400协议仅仅触及了蓬勃发展的土俄防务关系的表面,这也对北约军事一致性构成的威胁。



As if to lay on Moscow’s intent even more thickly, Chemezov added that Russia is “ready to cooperate” on a potential Su-57 sale so as to "support Turkey’s desire to develop its own defense industry." This proposal echoes similar Russian overtures to China and India, reflecting Russia’s export-driven developmental strategy for the Su-57 platform. Turkish President Recep Erdo?an’s government has yet to comment on the prospect of purchasing the Su-57. The question of time preference—that is, how long they are willing to wait to receive their order—may figure prominently into Turkey’s decision. Given that the Su-57 is just now beginning to be slowly serially produced, the Turkish Air Force is unlikely to receive their first batch of Su-57’s until at least early 2020. Meanwhile, the F-35 is not only widely available for export but produced, in significant part, by Turkish firms based in Turkey.

似乎是为了更加强调莫斯科的意图,切梅佐夫补充说,俄罗斯在潜在的SU-57销售基础上“准备(与土耳其)合作”,以“支持土耳其发展自己国防工业的愿望”。这一提议与俄罗斯向中国和印度提出的类似提议相呼应,反映了俄罗斯的SU-57平台的出口驱动型发展战略。

土耳其总统雷杰普·埃尔多安政府尚未对购买SU-57的前景发表评论。问题在于时间——也就是取决于他们愿意等待多久收到订单——可能是土耳其做出决定的一个重要因素。鉴于SU-57才刚刚开始缓慢地连续生产,土耳其空军至少要到2020年初才可能收到第一批SU-57。与此同时,F-35不仅广泛用于出口,而且在很大程度上由设在土耳其的土耳其公司生产。

Ankara has been less ambivalent in expressing its interest in Russia’s upcoming S-500 air defense system. “We concluded the S-400 issue, signed a deal with the Russians and will start co-production. Later, we may work on S-500s,” announced Erdogan in a recent interview. To be sure, such a purchase wouldn’t be without a clear military rationale. Having already bought into the Russian missile defense ecosystem with the S-400, it could make technical sense for Turkey to consider upgrading to its successor for the sake of systems coherency if nothing else.

安卡拉在表达对俄罗斯即将推出的S-500防空系统的兴趣时没有那么矛盾。“我们谈妥了S-400的问题,与俄罗斯签署了协议,并将开始合作生产。稍后,我们可能会研制S-500”,埃尔多安在最近的一次采访中宣布。当然,这样的购买不会没有明确的军事理由。土耳其已经使用了S-400,进入了俄罗斯导弹防御系统的生态系统,如果没有其他原因的话,考虑升级到它的后继者是有技术意义的。



Ankara’s revived interest in Russian military hardware comes during a time of acute strain in Turkey-NATO relations, an opening that the Kremlin has effectively been working to exploit. It remains to be seen whether this proves to be a mere bump on road or will mark the beginning of a permanent reorientation in Turkish defense priorities.

安卡拉方面对俄罗斯军事装备重新燃起兴趣之际,土耳其与北约关系正处于严重紧张状态,克里姆林宫实际上一直在利用这一契机。这仅仅是前进道路上的一次颠簸,还是标志着土耳其国防重点永久性调整的开始,还有待观察。